Photo by Jonas Leupe on Unsplash
Global smartphone shipments just recorded their weakest quarter in 14 years, and the reason is the same memory chip squeeze that has been driving up laptop and phone prices in India all year. For anyone holding off on a new phone hoping for relief, the latest market data suggests the wait is going to be longer -- and more expensive -- than most buyers expect.
Shipments Just Fell to a 14-Year Low
According to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments fell by roughly 20% year-on-year in the July-September quarter of 2026 -- the weakest third quarter the industry has recorded since 2012. That is nearly double the decline seen just one quarter earlier. Samsung held on to the top spot with about 23% share even as its own shipments slipped, while Apple crossed the 20% share mark in a Q3 for the first time ever. Budget-focused brands took the biggest hit: Xiaomi's shipments reportedly dropped more than 30%, with Oppo and vivo each down over 20%.
Zoom out and the picture gets worse. IDC's full-year forecast for 2026, covered by Tom's Guide, puts the annual decline at nearly 13%, down to around 1.1 billion units -- the largest drop the smartphone market has ever logged in a single year. IDC analysts describe this less as a temporary dip and more as a structural reset of the industry.
Why Memory Chips Are the Real Culprit
None of this is really about phones. It is about RAM and NAND flash. Data center operators building out AI infrastructure have been buying up memory capacity at a pace chipmakers cannot keep up with, and TechRadar reports that memory executives now expect the shortage to run through 2028 rather than easing next year. That has pushed component costs up sharply for every device maker who needs a memory chip -- phones, laptops, and desktops alike.
The knock-on effect on pricing is already visible. IDC expects the average selling price of a smartphone to climb about 14% this year to roughly $523, and analysts have flagged that budget phones priced under $100 could become permanently unviable even after memory prices eventually settle. For buyers in India, where budget and mid-range phones make up the bulk of the market, that is not a small detail.
What It Means for Phone Buyers in India
If shipments are falling because manufacturers can't get affordable memory, the honest takeaway is that new-phone prices are not coming down anytime soon -- and may keep climbing through 2027 and into 2028. Waiting for a correction before buying a new phone is increasingly a bet against the data. This is exactly the gap that unboxed and refurbished phones are built to close: you get current-generation hardware without absorbing this year's memory-driven price hikes. Browse our mobile phones collection for unboxed options that carry a 6-month brand warranty, so you're not trading away protection to dodge the price surge.
The same memory squeeze is also why refurbished laptops have held their value as a buying strategy this year. If a phone upgrade and a laptop upgrade are both on your list, it's worth checking unboxed laptops and refurbished laptops before paying new-retail prices that are quietly baking in this shortage.
Buying Smart in a Shortage Market
A few practical habits matter more this year than usual. Shop with sellers who are transparent about grading rather than vague listings -- refurbished laptops on our store are graded Good or Fair, with configurations clearly listed at 256GB/512GB SSD and 8GB/16GB RAM, so there's no guesswork. Always record an unboxing video; it's your proof for any transit-damage claim, since change-of-mind returns aren't offered on these deeply discounted devices. And if your needs change within two weeks, our buyback program returns 80% of the purchase price within 15 days, which is a far better hedge against a volatile pricing market than hanging on to a device you no longer need.
Shipping stays predictable regardless of the chip shortage headlines: free above Rs 5,000, with 1-2 business days of processing and 7-10 business days for delivery across India.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did global smartphone shipments drop to a 14-year low?
Counterpoint Research data shows shipments fell about 20% year-on-year in Q3 2026, the weakest third quarter since 2012, largely because rising DRAM and NAND memory prices pushed up manufacturing costs and forced brands to raise retail prices, which slowed consumer demand.
Will phone prices come down soon?
It looks unlikely in the near term. Memory industry executives expect the shortage driving these price increases to continue through 2028, and IDC's 2026 forecast already assumes average selling prices will keep rising this year rather than falling.
Is it a good time to buy an unboxed phone instead of waiting?
Yes, for most buyers. Since the memory shortage is a multi-year supply issue rather than a short-term blip, an unboxed phone with a 6-month warranty lets you get current hardware now without paying inflated new-retail prices tied to this year's chip costs.
Are budget phones affected more than flagships?
Yes. Analysts reported that budget-focused brands saw the sharpest shipment declines in Q3 2026, and IDC has warned that phones priced under $100 could become permanently uneconomical even after memory prices eventually stabilize.
Does the memory shortage affect laptops too?
Yes, the same RAM and NAND supply crunch driving up phone prices has been pushing up laptop and desktop prices throughout 2026, which is why refurbished and unboxed laptops have become a more popular way to avoid this year's price hikes.
